I Can't Resist this one from AOL; "It's the Economy, Stupid!!"

Studies Predict A [Nu]Clear Winn[t]er

[Title Augmentation by MooPig Editorial Department: Real AOL title is -- "Studies Predict a Clear Winner"]

"Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2 percent."

(Editing by Eric Walsh)

Copyright 2008, Reuters

2008-08-01 11:34:54

12 of Last 14 Races Picked Correctly Who Do They Say Will Be President?

Any further darkening in the economic outlook -- many analysts think things will get worse between now and November -- would reinforce that election outcome.

"The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans," said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978.

His model, which assumed tepid U.S. economic growth of 1.5 percent and a 3 percent rate of inflation, predicted the Republican candidate John McCain's share of the vote would be 47.8 percent, handing Obama 52.2 percent.

"It is a decent margin but it is not a landslide," said Fair, who ran the numbers in April. "It would have been much larger if there had been a recession in 2008."

Economic Models Predict Obama Win

Reuters

posted: 4 HOURS 18 MINUTES AGO [Retrieved HERE: Today for critical review]
filed under: Election News, Barack Obama, John McCain

WASHINGTON (Aug. 1) - It really is the economy, stupid! Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.

Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.